Heat stroke. Flooding. Agricultural devastation. Experts say residents in central New York have plenty to be concerned about when it comes to climate change.

Global temperatures are on track to increase by 3 to 5 degrees Celsius by 2100, according to a November 2018 announcement by the United Nations. In central New York, such temperature increases and climate shifts will affect both individual livelihoods and state functions, experts told The Daily Orange. 

Extreme heat due to climate change will lead to increased health risks, including kidney disease, heat stroke and heart disease, said Ingrid Zabel, a curator at the New York Climate Change Science Clearinghouse. Increasing nighttime temperatures can also cause heat illnesses, said Samantha Borisoff, a climatologist at the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

“Nighttime temperatures are really important for your body to rest and cool down, especially for those who work outside during the day,” she said. “With warmer temperatures overnight, your body doesn’t get a chance to get relief from the heat.”

Syracuse currently experiences 10 to 15 days in July and August with temperatures hotter than 90 degrees Fahrenheit. If human activity remains the same, that number will increase by an average of 56 days per year by 2100, according to the clearinghouse’s climate models.

Extended periods of heat will also damage central New York’s infrastructure, Zabel said. Materials with certain heat tolerances such as road asphalt, electric cables and metal poles will start to break down. Heavy rain caused by climate change will lead to more flooding, which will devastate numerous houses, businesses and overall livelihoods, she said.

Central New York is already experiencing massive floods, Zabel said. A 2018 flash flood in the Finger Lakes in northwestern New York flooded homes of residents from over 14 counties. 

Most of this damage will come from flooding in coastal areas such as Long Island and New York City. However, flooding impacts all New York state residents because their taxes and insurance rates pay for the damage, Zabel said. 

“In central New York, we are far away from the ocean, so why would we care? Because it does affect us financially,” she said. “Everyone is going to pay to protect the people on the coast.”

Economically disadvantaged residents are the most vulnerable to damage from flooding, said Justin Hartnett, a visiting professor at SUNY Oneonta. The residents purchase less expensive property near floodplains and cannot afford the infrastructure necessary to control flooding, he said. The Federal Emergency Management Agency will eventually be unable to provide enough relief to the damaged communities. 

Silje Kristiansen, assistant professor at SUNY-ESF, said even if the state does not experience many effects right away, other areas of the country will become uninhabitable. Eventually, New York will see a mass influx of climate refugees the state won’t have room for. 

“People lose their homes. They can’t grow food. There’s no access to food. They have to move. There will be masses of people moving,” she said. “This will cause a political issue they will have to deal with.”

By the year 2100, New York’s climate will be the same as Mississippi’s today in terms of temperature and precipitation, Hartnett said. Central New York is already experiencing a slight decline in the number of snowstorms and shorter winters, he said. 

Warming air has been creating inconsistent weather patterns in which hot periods that follow snowstorms melt all the snow within a couple days. This change jeopardizes snow industries such as snowmobile companies and ski resorts, Hartnett said. 

“Snow is livelihood for many people. Many construction workers when they get laid off at the end of summer plow the snow in the winter,” he said. “If there’s no snow to plow, maybe they’ll have construction all year round, but snow is still such a large industry we depend on here.”

Changing winters will also devastate New York agriculture because many crops, including apples, need a sustainable winter to insulate roots and grow during harvest time, Hartnett said. The longer periods of warm weather can also increase populations of pests such as ticks.

Scientists are neither certain about the severity of climate change’s impacts nor if humans will be able to reverse them in time, Hartnett said. This means that residents should take action against climate change, he said. 

The United Nations held a Climate Action Summit on Sept. 23 to discuss potential pathways and actions to respond to climate change and its impact on countries around the world. Cities worldwide, including Syracuse, held a Global Climate Strike days earlier to support the end of fossil fuels and the younger generation leading climate strikes. 

“The Earth has never seen something like this before,” Hartnett said. “It’s a dangerous game to play.”

Published on October 8, 2019 at 9:23 pm

Contact Abby: akweiss@syr.edu | @abbyweiss_21