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Syracuse recovered from losing two of three games in the Battle 4 Atlantis and defeated Indiana on Tuesday in double-overtime, with two Joe Girard III free throws sealing the 112-110 victory. The Orange now travel to Florida State and open up their Atlantic Coast Conference schedule on Saturday against a Seminoles team that has opened the year 5-2 but lost by 28 points to Purdue on Tuesday.

Caleb Mills leads FSU with a 12.1 points-per-game average, while one other starter and one reserve — Matthew Cleveland, who averages 22.7 minutes per game off the bench — average double-digit points.

Here’s what The Daily Orange’s beat writers think will happen when Syracuse and the Seminoles meet for the first time since 2020.

Andrew Crane (3-4)
Still falling short
Florida State 82, Syracuse 75

Until Syracuse figures out its defensive issues, it’s going to be difficult to pick the Orange as the winner of these games — especially as conference play kicks in. Their offense, as demonstrated on Tuesday against Indiana, has evolved throughout the year with the emergence of Jesse Edwards and stable play of Jimmy Boeheim, but often those strides have been negated by a porous 2-3 zone, foul trouble at the center position and an inability to defend 3-pointers. Florida State’s 37th-ranked offensive rebounding unit, per KenPom, will test SU’s defensive rebounding. Its 3-point shooting will test the Orange’s ability to close out on shooters and alter shots. Look for Syracuse to drop its second ACC opener in three years, with this one serving as the latest reminder of the constant defensive problems that have plagued it so far and will continue deeper into the season.

Roshan Fernandez (4-3)
Not in our house
Florida State 80, Syracuse 74

The Seminoles are expected to return two of the three key players that they were missing in their blowout loss to Purdue, and that should allow them to take care of business at home against the Orange on Saturday. FSU ranks top-40 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and is a balanced team that could pose problems for Syracuse. The Orange are shooting really well, but that comes in spurts. Their defensive issues are here to stay. Head coach Jim Boeheim said after the game that even during the first half against Indiana, Syracuse wasn’t defending well, the Hoosiers were just shooting poorly. SU was able to will its way to a win over Indiana, but that won’t work against a more composed all-around team in Florida State. Tallahassee is a hard place for visiting teams to play in, and FSU should win its 26th consecutive conference game at home, tying Duke’s record from 1997-2000.

Gaurav Shetty (4-3)
Slow start
Florida State 87 Syracuse 75

While I correctly predicted Syracuse would beat Indiana in a close one, I did not expect a double-overtime victory. Nevertheless, I don’t think the Orange have what it takes to string together two wins in a row and beat Florida State, who may not be as good as currently projected. The Seminoles have suffered two big losses to Florida and Purdue, two teams in the AP top-25 but barely scraped by Boston University by one point in overtime. If Syracuse had an above average defense, this might’ve been a win. However, after the win over Indiana, Boeheim said his defense hasn’t been good all season. FSU is top-25 on KenPom in steal and turnover percentage, so not only will the Seminoles be able to slow the Syracuse offense down, but they will also be able to score in bunches on the Orange’s struggling defense on the other end. This ACC opener will show the Orange what they already know: the defense is not there yet.

Published on December 1, 2021 at 8:08 pm