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Led by Benny Williams, Syracuse used a strong second half on Saturday to take care of Boston College and win its second Atlantic Coast Conference game of the season. Though head coach Jim Boeheim said that the Orange won not because they played better, but because they had more shots fall down the stretch. SU had four players finish with double-digit points and saw a strong 50% shooting from beyond the arc.

Now, Syracuse travels to Louisville for the first game of 2023, looking to notch a 10th win and improve to 3-1 in the ACC. The Cardinals are led by first-year head coach Kenny Payne and are off to a historically bad start. After starting the season 0-9, they’ve muddled along to an abysmal 2-12 record, and are in search of their first conference win.

Before the Orange take on Louisville at the KFC Yum Center, here’s everything you need to know about the Cardinals.

All-time series

Louisville leads 19-11.

Last time they played

Syracuse obliterated Louisville last year to win its third straight game in the midst of a four-game conference winning streak that looked to revitalize a lost season. The Orange won 92-69 after leading for the entirety of the game, and at one point extending its lead to as many as 32. Each of Syracuse’s starters finished with double digits in the routing that lifted it over .500 on the season and moved it to 6-6 in conference play. Buddy Boeheim and Jesse Edwards both finished with 19 points, while Joe Girard III added 15 points, including three 3-pointers.

Syracuse held the Cardinals to just 26 points in the first half, and no one scored more for Louisville than Jae’Lyn Withers (13). The Cardinals combined to shoot just 40.3% from the field and connected on just 10-of-35 3-pointers. Though Syracuse would go on to its first losing season under Boeheim, the win came in the midst of a 6-1 streak that helped prime the Orange for a late season run. But it lost out on its final four games of the season and was bounced by Duke in the second round of the ACC Tournament, ending a disappointing season.

The Cardinals report

Louisville took 10 games to earn its first win this season. A young team in search of a new identity under first-year head coach Payne, the Cardinals have sunk not only to the bottom of the ACC, but of Division I college basketball. A season-opening, one-point loss to Bellarmine quickly turned into four home losses to mid-major schools as part of its worst start in program history. The Cardinals are prone to turnovers, have a horrible effective field goal percentage and have one of the worst two-point field goal defenses in the country.

With their only two wins coming against Western Kentucky and Florida A&M, the Cardinals are struggling to establish themselves as anything but an automatic win for ACC opponents. Led by El Ellis, Louisville is shooting just above 40% from the field and 31% on 3-pointers. Though the senior is averaging 17.5 points per game, and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield is chipping in an additional 8.2 points per game, the Cardinals currently have a -12.9 point scoring margin.

KenPom odds

Syracuse has a 76% chance of winning, with a projected score of 72-64.

How Syracuse beats Louisville

This is the perfect opportunity for Syracuse to showcase its ability to exploit passing lanes and get to the basket consistently. Judah Mintz frequently gets in trouble when he tries to drive toward the basket and watches the lane close in on him, but he and the rest of the Orange will have greater success shooting from inside arc consistently against the Cardinals. Louisville is one of the worst teams when it comes to defending two-point shots, a great statistic for a team that generates 59.2% of its points from that range.

This is also a great game for Williams and Chris Bell to showcase their rebounding abilities — if they have any — as Louisville has also struggled preventing teams from garnering offensive rebounds. In theory, this should be a dominant game for Syracuse’s forwards and Edwards on the boards as they all try to extend SU possessions against the Cardinals. The Orange can pick apart a struggling Louisville team and show college basketball that it can rebound effectively — apart from Edwards.

Stat to know: 23.8% turnover percentage

Syracuse ranks 45th in the country with a 16.5% turnover rate, but the Cardinals rank 354th, holding a turnover rate of 23.8%. Be it because of a younger group of players or a difficulty generating offense against better defenses, Louisville is getting in its own way throughout the first 14 games of the season.

The Orange are a much more experienced team that is successful at keeping possession, though Boston College forced 14 turnovers. Syracuse can utilize this trend, especially in the crux of the 2-3 zone, to break up passing lanes and ensure Louisville is forced to pass less and attempt to shoot over the zone.

Player to watch: El Ellis, guard, No. 3

The senior is in his second season with Louisville after spending his first two seasons playing at Tallahassee Community College. He has been the lone bright spot in an otherwise disastrous season for the Cardinals. Through 14 games, he’s averaging a team-leading 17.5 points per game and 4.14 assists per game at the top of the Cardinals’ formation.

He isn’t the strongest shooter Syracuse will face this season, but he will likely generate the majority of Louisville’s offense. Ellis has finished 12 games with at least 11 points this season, and has topped 25 points three times thus far.

Published on January 2, 2023 at 12:45 pm

Contact Anthony: aalandt@syr.edu | @anthonyalandt