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Syracuse earned its best win of the 2020-21 season and started another winning streak by knocking off No. 16 Virginia Tech, 78-60, on Saturday. Four players tallied double-digit point totals, led by Quincy Guerrier with 20, and the Orange (9-4, 3-3 Atlantic Coast) pulled away in the second half after a six-point halftime lead.

Next up for SU is No. 8 Virginia. The Cavaliers (10-2, 6-0 ACC) sit at the top of the ACC standings, and have won their past six games — including their most recent victory against Georgia Tech by two points.

Here’s what The Daily Orange’s three beat writers think will happen in Charlottesville on Monday.

Andrew Crane (9-4)
Not so fast
Virginia 67, Syracuse 62

All of a sudden, after blowing out two opponents by 18 or more points, the outlook on Syracuse’s season has flipped. Even without making 3-pointers, the Orange have sharpened their defense and found success driving inside. They’re playing their best basketball yet this season heading into their toughest matchup yet, and, in theory, that’s a good thing. But Virginia is Virginia, Tony Bennett is Tony Bennett, and SU has struggled against the Cavaliers, their stout defense and their pace in past games.

I expect that to continue on Monday. Maybe Syracuse is better than we initially thought — I’ve picked against them the past two games, and was wrong both times. Maybe they’ll continue to erase their bubble status and emerge as a likely NCAA Tournament bid. If everything continues to click for Syracuse, an upset could certainly happen. Instead, look for Sam Hauser, Jay Huff and Kihei Clark to stop the Orange’s winning streak at two games.

Anthony Dabbundo (10-3)
Mind the gap
Virginia 71, Syracuse 65

Syracuse’s most significant win of the late 2010s came against Virginia, further cementing the narrative of both Syracuse in March and Virginia in March. The Orange rallied from a double-digit deficit in the second half as UVA choked away their first chance at a Final Four under Bennett. Consider the trajectories of the two programs since. The Orange haven’t been close to a Final Four. SU is perennially on the bubble. Virginia is the defending national champion and looks like the league’s best team again. The Cavaliers’ snail-like pace, offensive efficiency and defensive solidity will be too much for the Orange to overcome. Clark is one of the nation’s most underrated point guards, especially defensively, and the Orange won’t generate enough half court offense to keep up with UVA. While a win against Virginia would be the signature win SU needs, it’s not coming on Monday night.

Virginia’s offense will have no issues passing through the Orange’s zone and SU’s defense will be tested by the first truly elite team they’re facing in 2020-21. It won’t pass the test.

Danny Emerman (9-4)
Right time, wrong place
Virginia 74, Syracuse 67

After beating Virginia Tech, Jim Boeheim praised Bennett’s Virginia Cavaliers, but also said he thinks his group is playing better ball right now. “We’re gonna play a great team, I think the best team in the league probably by the end of the year, right now really: Virginia. They’re playing great, and that’ll be a really tough test. Their team is just so good offensively and defensively, but I think we’re playing better.” 

Especially considering UVA barely snuck past Georgia Tech on Saturday, Boeheim might be right. Syracuse is coming off two statement wins, while Virginia had a game postponed before the 64-62 victory over the Yellow Jackets. Syracuse could be catching Virginia at the perfect time. 

But UVA still has the best defense in the ACC. It still has a top-20 offense and defense in terms of efficiency. And it’s only lost five home games in the past four years (including last year to Syracuse). It’s tough to win in Charlottesville, but SU’s multidimensional offense will keep it close.

Published on January 24, 2021 at 5:26 pm