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Before taking a one-game hiatus from its nonconference schedule, Syracuse hosts Indiana in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge on Tuesday night. The Hoosiers are 6-0 and most recently defeated Marshall by 11 points on Saturday.

SU closed its trip to the Bahamas with a loss to Auburn, with that defeat against the Tigers and another one to VCU sandwiching a win over Arizona State. Jesse Edwards recorded 30-plus minutes and 15-plus points in back-to-back games, and Cole Swider started to connect from 3-point range for the first time this season. SU’s defense, though, ranks 291st defending the 3, and it has been the primary problem for them through the first six games.

Here’s what The Daily Orange’s beat writers think will happen when SU (3-3) faces the Hoosiers (6-0) for the first time since the 2013-14 season.

Andrew Crane (3-3)
A stark reality
Indiana 81, Syracuse 77

These ACC/Big Ten Challenge games have been humbling for the Orange the last two years. They fell short against No. 21 Rutgers last year when the Scarlet Knights used their defensive and rebounding physicality to steal back a late lead and close out the game. SU suffered a 14-point loss to Iowa, when preseason 3-point expectations didn’t materialize once more, cementing its worst start since 1970. Both of those scenarios sound familiar to the ones that Syracuse has experienced this season — with the spotty rebounding, inconsistent 3-point shooting and a lack of defensive efficiency. The emergence of Edwards and Swider during the Battle 4 Atlantis is certainly promising for the long-term unfolding of SU’s season, but beating a team like Indiana — which doesn’t have a ton of height but has Trayce Jackson-Davis’ 20.5 points-per-game average — is still out of reach at this point.

Roshan Fernandez (4-2)
Sinking further
Indiana 83, Syracuse 75

SU’s defense is still sorting through a lot of defensive issues that arose during the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. The unit ranks 156th in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency — KenPom began tracking in 1997, and Syracuse had never ranked lower than 119th (2017). It’s early in the season, but the formula to beat the SU zone right now is to convert 3-pointers, like Colgate did, and move the ball through the middle of the zone, like VCU did. SU ranks 291st in 3-point defense, and Indiana is certainly capable of converting trifectas (76th in the nation in 3-point shooting). Indiana’s stats are definitely deceiving because of early-season blowout wins, but Syracuse is still figuring out its identity and sorting through kinks this early in the season. It’ll fall below .500 here.

Gaurav Shetty (3-3)
Not my type on paper
Syracuse 76, Indiana 73

This game will be close, there’s no doubt about that. However, I don’t believe Indiana is as good as its stats suggest. The Hoosiers have the best effective field goal percentage defense and two-point defense on Kenpom. But Indiana hasn’t played any teams of note other than St. Johns, which the Hoosiers barely beat 76-74. VCU gave the Orange a lot of trouble with its defense, but the Rams have had a consistently good defense over the years, whereas Indiana ranked only 43rd defensively on KenPom last year and did not make it to the NCAA Tournament. Behind much improved play from Cole Swider and Jesse Edwards on offense, I see the Orange narrowly topping an Indiana team that isn’t quite as good as it is on paper.

Published on November 29, 2021 at 8:19 pm